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Coffee crop in Brazil during 2015 expected to be as big as 47mn bags

Coffee crop in Brazil during 2015 expected to be as big as 47mn bags

Posted by Laura Zúñiga on October 29, 2014

SAO PAULO: Brazil's 2015 coffee crop is expected at best to reach 47 million 60-kg bags, on par with this year's crop that just finished harvest, a Rabobank analyst said.

Rafael Barbosa, food and agribusiness analyst at the bank, said in an email late on Monday that he expected rains to return to the drought-stricken coffee belt in the coming weeks, which would likely unleash widespread flowering across the coffee belt. Even so, he did not see "much room for a larger crop next year," even if rains come with regularity from now through the rest of the season.

"My view is that we are starting with a potential crop in 2015 at the same size of 2014 - 47 million bags," Barbosa said. "From now to the beginning of the harvest, weather will define whether it is possible - or not - to reach this potential." He went on to say that if rains did not materialize or weather caused further disruption in the development of the new crop, "we could see a bid decrease (in output) next year and a considerably smaller crop." But he said this was not his base case scenario.

"I assume rains will return and weather will develop normally." In Rabobank's breakdown of the 47 million bags harvested from this year's crop, Barbosa said that arabica beans made up 30 million bags of it and robusta 17 million.

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